Forecasting of Turkey's long-term energy consumption by using metaheuristic algorithms

---

Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Hasan Kalyoncu Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2021

Tezin Dili: İngilizce

Öğrenci: MERVE BABAOĞLU

Danışman: Bülent Haznedar

Özet:

Energy is one of the most important topics for the sustainable development of countries. Due to the fact that the energy used can be depleted, it imports many energy sources, and environmental factors, it is of great importance for Turkey to forecast how much energy needs may be in the future. In this study, whale optimization algorithm (WOA) was preferred from metaheuristic algorithms in order to forecast the amount of energy consumption of Turkey until 2040. A genetic algorithm (GA) and an artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) were used to measure the performance of the WOA. These heuristic algorithms are increasingly preferred by the high forecasting performance obtained from the models they create. All models are arranged linear and quadratic and the result is obtained. Data for independent variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), population, imports and exports affecting energy consumption were used between 1990 and 2019. These data are taken from TUIK (Turkish Statistical Institute), BP World Energy Statistics Report, World Bank and IEA (International Energy Agency). Modeling of the past 30 years has been provided to determine the equation that gives the closest result to the actual value. For the next 20 years, calculations were made according to 4 different scenarios. According to these calculations, it was observed that the ABC linear model works better than the other two models with values of 99% R^2 and 4.35% MAPE.