Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
2019 IEEE Jordan International Joint Conference on Electrical Engineering and Information Technology (JEEIT), Amman, Ürdün, 9 - 11 Nisan 2019, ss.495-500
Wind has been used to facilitate human life
throughout history, but besides being a beneficial renewable
energy resource it could transform into a hazardous disaster
which could result high loss of life and property. The wind
energy was first used for purposes such as produce cereals,
transport sailing ships in the sea. Nowadays, wind energy is
used in electricity production. The temporal spatial variability
and difficulties faced during measurement process of wind
speed increased the importance of studies related with wind
speed forecast. In this study, Gray estimation method was
applied to monthly wind speed data measured between
2000−2017 years at three weather stations in Kayseri. Three
different GM(1,1) equations were obtained from results of
analysis. The average of coefficients obtained from GM(1,1)
equations were used to forecast monthly wind speed data
between 2014-2017 of other six weather stations located in
Kayseri. Accuracy of wind speed estimates were investigated
with statistics mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean
squared error (RMSE).According to MAE and RMSE criteria,
GM(1,1) model has the best result in 18207 station
(MAE: 0.28; RMSE: 0.32), while the worst result in 18457
station (MAE: 1.93; RMSE: 1.99). Results of the study
indicated that the forecast of wind speed for locations without
measurement could be accurately predicted with GM(1,1)
model obtained from the other near stations.