DETERMINATION OF MONTHLY WIND SPEED OF KAYSERI REGION WITH GRAY ESTIMATION METHOD


Çıtakoğlu H. , Aydemir A.

2019 IEEE Jordan International Joint Conference on Electrical Engineering and Information Technology (JEEIT), Amman, Ürdün, 9 - 11 April 2019, ss.495-500

  • Basıldığı Şehir: Amman
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Ürdün
  • Sayfa Sayısı: ss.495-500

Özet

Wind has been used to facilitate human life

throughout history, but besides being a beneficial renewable

energy resource it could transform into a hazardous disaster

which could result high loss of life and property. The wind

energy was first used for purposes such as produce cereals,

transport sailing ships in the sea. Nowadays, wind energy is

used in electricity production. The temporal spatial variability

and difficulties faced during measurement process of wind

speed increased the importance of studies related with wind

speed forecast. In this study, Gray estimation method was

applied to monthly wind speed data measured between

2000−2017 years at three weather stations in Kayseri. Three

different GM(1,1) equations were obtained from results of

analysis. The average of coefficients obtained from GM(1,1)

equations were used to forecast monthly wind speed data

between 2014-2017 of other six weather stations located in

Kayseri. Accuracy of wind speed estimates were investigated

with statistics mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean

squared error (RMSE).According to MAE and RMSE criteria,

GM(1,1) model has the best result in 18207 station

(MAE: 0.28; RMSE: 0.32), while the worst result in 18457

station (MAE: 1.93; RMSE: 1.99). Results of the study

indicated that the forecast of wind speed for locations without

measurement could be accurately predicted with GM(1,1)

model obtained from the other near stations.