Scientific output as a driver of indigenous space capability: Evidence from a Gompertz survival model
Acta Astronautica, cilt.249, ss.409-419, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 249
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2026.08.028
- Dergi Adı: Acta Astronautica
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Compendex, INSPEC, Public Affairs Index, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.409-419
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Gompertz model, Indigenous space capability, National innovation systems, New space ecosystem, Scientific publication, Space economics, Survival analysis, Technological capacity
- Erciyes Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Space has evolved from being a source of curiosity and scientific inquiry into an indispensable domain of strategic, economic, and technological activity. Satellite-based navigation systems, global communication networks, and positioning services now underpin the functioning of critical sectors ranging from telecommunications and finance to logistics and defense. This study empirically examines the role of scientific research capacity in countries' transition toward indigenous space capability using a Gompertz survival model. Indigenous space capability is conceptualized as national involvement in the development of domestically or partially domestically manufactured satellites, including participation in collaborative small-satellite initiatives aimed at building domestic technological capacity, without requiring autonomous launch capability. The analysis draws on a panel of 85 countries observed over the 1996–2024 period and focuses on the timing of countries' first transition to indigenous space capability. The findings demonstrate that scientific publication output significantly increases the hazard of achieving indigenous space capability. These findings are further supported by robustness checks using an alternative discrete-time hazard specification, confirming the stability of the results across different temporal modeling frameworks. Control variables capturing institutional capacity, population size, trade openness, and energy structure exhibit effects broadly consistent with theoretical expectations. Overall, the results suggest that scientific research infrastructure functions not merely as a background condition but as a strategic driver of countries’ progression along the space technology ladder, providing empirical support for perspectives rooted in national innovation systems and technology diffusion theory.