Research Information System
Ankara Universitesi Veteriner Fakultesi Dergisi, vol.72, no.2, pp.191-200, 2025 (SCI-Expanded)
Unlike traditional time-series methods, the ATA analysis method developed in recent years dynamically adjusts the smoothing parameters according to the sample size. This study aimed to estimate the export and import values of live animals and livestock products for the next five years (2024-2028) using the ATA method, based on the values from the previous years (2014-2023) in Türkiye. The study material consisted of export and import values (in dollars) of the "live animals,” "meat/meat products," "milk/milk products + eggs" and "fish and other seafood" categories in Türkiye between 2014 and 2023. The Turkish Statistical Institute's records, divided into the aforementioned categories and presented in four annual quarters, provided the study data. The ATA method, which is a simple, highly accurate, and automatic forecasting method, was used for data modeling. According to the study findings, it was estimated that the import values of "live animals," "meat/meat products," "milk/milk products + eggs," and "fish and other seafood" may be a total of approximately $1.4 billion, $172 million, $157 million, and $300 million, respectively, whereas the export value of the same products may reach $113 million, $1.3 billion, $866 million, and $2 billion, respectively, in 2028. In conclusion, the ATA analysis method can be used to reveal a perspective in the coming years in terms of foreign trade in the livestock sector, but it should be updated constantly. It has been concluded that such studies can guide policymakers in the country in developing necessary strategies in foreign trade for the future.