Estimating the net electricity energy generation and demand using the ant colony optimization approach: Case of Turkey


Toksari M. D.

ENERGY POLICY, cilt.37, ss.1181-1187, 2009 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 37 Konu: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2009
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.017
  • Dergi Adı: ENERGY POLICY
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1181-1187

Özet

This paper presents Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand based on economic indicators. Forecasting model for electricity energy generation and demand is first proposed by the ant colony optimization (ACO) approach. It is multi-agent system in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem. Ant colony optimization electricity energy estimation (ACOEEE) model is developed using population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. All equations proposed here are linear electricity energy generation and demand (linear_ACOEEGE and linear ACOEEDE) and quadratic energy generation and demand (quadratic-ACOEEGE and quadratic ACOEEDE). Quadratic models for both generation and demand provided better fit solution due to the fluctuations of the economic indicators. The ACOEEGE and ACOEEDE models indicate Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand until 2025 according to three scenarios. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.