Fuzzy Bayesian reliability and availability analysis of production systems

GÖRKEMLİ L., Ulusoy S.

COMPUTERS & INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING, vol.59, no.4, pp.690-696, 2010 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 59 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2010
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.cie.2010.07.020
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.690-696
  • Erciyes University Affiliated: Yes


To have effective production planning and control, it is necessary to calculate the reliability and availability of a production system as a whole. Considering only machine reliability in the calculations would most likely result unmet due dates. In this study, a new modelling approach for determining the reliability and availability of a production system is proposed by considering all the components of the system and their hierarchy in the system structure. Components of a production system are defined as production processes; components of the processes are defined as sub-processes. In this hierarchical structure we could model all kinds of failures such as material and supply, management and personnel, and machine and equipment. In the analysis, a fuzzy Bayesian method is used to quantify the uncertainties in the production environment. The suggested modelling approach is illustrated on an example. In the example, also a separate reliability and availability analysis is conducted which only considered machine failures, and the results of both analyses are compared. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.