Ant colony optimization approach to estimate energy demand of Turkey

Toksari M. D.

ENERGY POLICY, cilt.35, sa.8, ss.3984-3990, 2007 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 35 Sayı: 8
  • Basım Tarihi: 2007
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.enpol.2007.01.028
  • Dergi Adı: ENERGY POLICY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.3984-3990
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: ant colony optimization, energy demand, Turkey, ECONOMIC-GROWTH, CONSUMPTION, CAUSALITY, SECTOR, GNP
  • Erciyes Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

This paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of energy demand in Turkey. Energy demand model is first proposed using the ant colony optimization (ACO) approach. It is multi-agent systems in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem. ACO energy demand estimation (ACOEDE) model is developed using population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. All equations proposed here are linear and quadratic. Quadratic_ACOE D E provided better-fit solution due to fluctuations of the economic indicators. The ACOEDE model plans the energy demand of Turkey until 2025 according to three scenarios. The relative estimation errors of the ACOEDE model are the lowest when they are compared with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) projection. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.