Design of neural predictors for predicting and analysing COVID-19 cases in different regions

Yildirim S., Durmusoglu A., Sevim Ç., Bingol M. S., Kalkat M.

NEURAL NETWORK WORLD, cilt.32, sa.5, ss.233-251, 2022 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 32 Sayı: 5
  • Basım Tarihi: 2022
  • Doi Numarası: 10.14311/nnw.2022.32.014
  • Dergi Adı: NEURAL NETWORK WORLD
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.233-251
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: COVID-19, NAR-NN, ANFIS, ARIMA, prediction, modelling of the pandemic
  • Erciyes Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Nowadays, some unexpected viruses are affecting people with many troubles. COVID-19 virus is spread in the world very rapidly. However, it seems that predicting cases and death fatalities is not easy. Artificial neural networks are employed in many areas for predicting the system’s parameters in simulation or real-time approaches. This paper presents the design of neural predictors for analysing the cases of COVID-19 in three countries. Three countries were selected because of their different regions. Especially, these major countries’ cases were selected for predicting future effects. Furthermore, three types of neural network predictors were employed to analyse COVID-19 cases. NAR-NN is one of the proposed neural networks that have three layers with one input layer neurons, hidden layer neurons and an output layer with fifteen neurons. Each neuron consisted of the activation functions of the tan-sigmoid. The other proposed neural network, ANFIS, consists of five layers with two inputs and one output and ARIMA uses four iterative steps to predict. The proposed neural network types have been selected from many other types of neural network types. These neural network structures are feed-forward types rather than recurrent neural networks. Learning time is better and faster than other types of networks. Finally, three types of neural predictors were used to predict the cases. The R2 and MSE results improved that three types of neural networks have good performance to predict and analyse three region cases of countries.