Biocapacity-based assessment of trade openness and environmental quality in G20 countries
Next Sustainability, cilt.8, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 8
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.nxsust.2026.100529
- Dergi Adı: Next Sustainability
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus
- Anahtar Kelimeler: CO₂ emissions, Ecological footprint, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Environmental pollution, Inverted load capacity factor, Trade openness
- Erciyes Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study investigates the relationship between trade openness and environmental pollution in G20 countries using a comprehensive sustainability framework that extends beyond carbon-centric assessments. Building on the growing literature on biocapacity-based environmental indicators, the analysis employs the inverted load capacity factor alongside ecological footprint and CO₂ emissions, providing a multi-indicator assessment of the trade–environment nexus. The study employs panel data methods, including the fixed-effect Driscoll–Kraay standard error approach and Powell panel quantile regression, to account for heterogeneity across different levels of environmental pressure. The robustness of the findings is further assessed using panel dynamic OLS and heterogeneous, cross-sectionally robust estimators.The empirical findings offer differentiated support for the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis: the evidence is strongest and most consistent for ecological footprint, holds only at the 70th quantile for CO₂ emissions (with U-shaped anti-EKC patterns at the distributional tails), and is confined to intermediate quantiles for the inverted load capacity factor. A central result is that trade openness reduces CO₂ emissions and ecological footprint in the mean-based estimations, yet the Powell quantile estimates indicate higher environmental pressure across the entire quantile distribution when the inverted load capacity factor is used, a divergence constituting an aggregation paradox akin to Simpson’s paradox, attributable to the compositional influence of biocapacity-surplus economies. Globalization and human capital exhibit heterogeneous effects across the environmental pressure distribution, with globalization consistently reducing ecological footprint across quantiles and human capital showing only a limited mitigating effect when biocapacity-based indicators are considered.Overall, the results highlight the necessity of aligning trade liberalization with environmental regulation and sustained investment in human capital, while recognizing that the trade coefficient captures a composite of scale, composition, and technique effects. By employing a biocapacity-oriented indicator alongside conventional measures within a quantile regression framework for G20 countries, this study contributes to the sustainability literature and offers nuanced, policy-relevant insights for advancing sustainable development pathways in both advanced and emerging economies.