Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model

Ulucak R. , Yücel A. G. , İlkay S. Ç.

TOURISM ECONOMICS, cilt.26, ss.1394-1414, 2020 (SSCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 26
  • Basım Tarihi: 2020
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1177/1354816620901956
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1394-1414


Turkey, an emerging economy, ranked 8th among the most visited countries in the world in 2017. Given the importance of the tourism sector in Turkey, it is of utmost importance to identify the dynamics of tourism demand to achieve sustainable tourism. The aim of this article is, therefore, to explore the demand-side factors that affect the number of international tourist arrivals to Turkey. To this end, an augmented gravity model has been employed to analyze the factors affecting the number of international tourists visiting Turkey from the top 25 originating countries from 1998 to 2017. The results show that the gravity model is very effective in explaining the tourist arrivals to Turkey. Empirical findings suggest that per capita income of both origin country and Turkey, relative exchange rate, and globalization positively affect the demand for tourism, while it is negatively affected by consumer price index, violence/terrorism, household debt level, and bilateral distance between Turkey and the origin country.