Evaluating environmental policies’ impact on india’s environmental Kuznets curve: evidence of Policy-Driven shifts in growth and pollution dynamics


Al-Mulali U., Ridwan I. l., ASLAN A., Raboshuk A.

Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s11869-025-01869-3
  • Dergi Adı: Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, BIOSIS, Geobase
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Environmental kuznets curve, CO2 emissions, India, Environmental policy, DARDL model, Sustainable development
  • Erciyes Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study investigates how environmental policy interventions influence the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in India, an emerging economy, using annual data from 1980 to 2023 and the Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (DARDL) model. It focuses on major initiatives including the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme, the FAME programs, and the National Hydrogen Energy Mission. By incorporating interaction terms between GDP and policy variables, the analysis measures how these policies moderate the impact of economic growth on CO₂ emissions. The results confirm an inverted U-shaped EKC for India, with economic growth initially increasing emissions but declining after a threshold income. Importantly, the policies significantly flatten the curve: a 1% increase in electric vehicle adoption and hydrogen use reduces CO₂ emissions by approximately 1.5% in the short term and 0.16% in the long term. Policy interventions also bring forward the EKC turning point from around USD 28,000 per capita to roughly USD 1,800 per capita, demonstrating that strategic environmental policies can accelerate emission reductions without hindering growth. These findings emphasize that India’s environmental improvements are driven by proactive policy measures rather than market forces alone, offering valuable guidance for policymakers in other emerging economies seeking sustainable growth.