Reservoir volume forecasting using artificial intelligence-based models: Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Long Short-Term Memory

Özdoğan-Sarıkoç G., SARIKOÇ M., ÇELİK M., DADAŞER ÇELİK F.

Journal of Hydrology, vol.616, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 616
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128766
  • Journal Name: Journal of Hydrology
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Artic & Antarctic Regions, BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Environment Index, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Reservoir Operation, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)
  • Erciyes University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

© 2022 Elsevier B.V.Reservoirs are essential structures that have important functions in water supply, flood control, irrigation for agriculture, and hydroelectric production. These functions can only be realized with an effective reservoir operation. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can be used for forecasting reservoir volumes, which is a critical parameter for reservoir operation and management. This study predicts the reservoir volumes using AI techniques, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), in two reservoirs (Ladik and Yedikir Reservoirs). The effects of various parameters on the performance of the models were analyzed. The results show that (1) the number of epochs affects the performance of the ANN and LSTM models considerably, but the SVR model performance is sensitive to kernel function type, (2) the SVR model does not produce as good results when compared to the ANN and LSTM models. The SVR model performance can be improved with more advanced strategies, (3) the LSTM model, which is good at modelling time series data, showed the best performance for both reservoirs, indicating that it is more adaptive to temporal dynamics in water volumes than the ANN and SVR models. Overall, AI-based models provided promising results for estimating reservoir volumes.