Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
SECURITY JOURNAL, cilt.39, sa.1, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
Terrorism constitutes a persistent external shock to tourism-dependent economies, yet its specific impact on the aviation sector remains underexplored. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between terrorism and international air passenger demand from Europe to Turkey over the period 2000-2020. Annual data on air arrivals from 20 European countries, terrorism incidents and fatalities, and tourism revenues were analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing framework, complemented by an error correction model (ECM), CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability diagnostics, and Granger causality tests to assess the robustness and directionality of the relationships. The results confirm a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. Fatalities from terrorist incidents exert a statistically significant negative effect on air passenger demand in both the short and long run, with a long-run elasticity of-0.091, while tourism revenues are positively associated with arrivals (elasticity: 0.666). These findings demonstrate that terrorism imposes enduring constraints on aviation demand along the Europe-Turkey travel corridor. Moreover, the Granger causality analysis reveals both bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships among the variables, notably identifying a unidirectional causality running from terrorist incidents to air passenger demand, underscoring the predictive influence of terrorism on aviation activity without reciprocal feedback. The study offers policy-relevant insights, emphasising the need for targeted risk-management strategies, enhanced security coordination, and proactive communication measures to safeguard the resilience of the aviation and tourism sectors.