Graphic Estimation of Sars-CoV-2 (Covid 19) outbreak in timeline from 11th of March to 2nd of May 2020

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Mazicioğlu M. M.

Turkish Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, vol.14, no.2, pp.171-176, 2020 (Peer-Reviewed Journal)


The outbreak of Sars-Cov-2 pandemic has reached the peak infection rate in several countries. Since the start of outbreak Turkey in 10th of March 2020 ministry of health announced the figures about the number of performed tests, number of confirmed cases, number deaths related to outbreak, number of patients in intensive care units and intubated, and number of healed patients. We used regression analysis curve estimation method to predict the probable end point of outbreak. Cubic regression estimation was calculated as the most appropriate method of estimation (R2: 0.978). Finally future prediction of the SARS-CoV-2 infection course is determined as minimum of 90 days according to the observed data up to date. The decrease in the number of individuals in intensive care unit or intubated may be ten to twenty days later after the decrease or disappearance of confirmed cases.