Modeling and stability analysis of the spread of novel coronavirus disease COVID-19

George Maria Selvam A., Alzabut J., Abraham Vianny D., Jacintha M., Yousef F. B.

International Journal of Biomathematics, cilt.14, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 14
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1142/s1793524521500352
  • Dergi Adı: International Journal of Biomathematics
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, BIOSIS, zbMATH
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Discrete fractional order, SEIHR model, equilibrium points, stability, bifurcation, EPIDEMIC MODEL
  • Erciyes Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

© 2021 World Scientific Publishing Company.Towards the end of 2019, the world witnessed the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (COVID-19), a new strain of coronavirus that was unidentified in humans previously. In this paper, a new fractional-order Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Hospitalized-Recovered (SEIHR) model is formulated for COVID-19, where the population is infected due to human transmission. The fractional-order discrete version of the model is obtained by the process of discretization and the basic reproductive number is calculated with the next-generation matrix approach. All equilibrium points related to the disease transmission model are then computed. Further, sufficient conditions to investigate all possible equilibria of the model are established in terms of the basic reproduction number (local stability) and are supported with time series, phase portraits and bifurcation diagrams. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the theoretical findings.